Seasonal Forecasting

Seasonal Forecasting is normally a combination of Top Down and Bottom Up and done at a revenue level.  

1. The Top Down process uses sales history to estimate future sales across the business.  
   1. The forecast is then allocated across /wiki/spaces/SE/pages/32638092, reviewed and then allocated to the customer level.
2. The Bottom Up process then reviews forecasts by sales channel at the Customer level to build up a comparative picture.

Top Down Seasonal Brand Quantities Forecasting Process

Top Down Planning for Seasons uses the information from previous seasons to predict future seasons and is normally done within Brands

When the Articles have not changed from last season - scale the previous seasons sales by a growth factor.

When new Articles are being introduced into Article Categories decisions are required

• What is the reference Article/s from the previous season for sales history
  • Is the new Article simply a replacement?  
    • If so then scale the previous season sales by a growth factor
  • Is an Article Categories or Styles range being expanded or contracted with the new Articles?
    • If the range is being expanded ( use opposite for contracted)
      • How much growth is expected across the Article Category or Style
      • How do you expect the growth to be spread across all the Articles within the Category or Style
    • For example this season you will have 2x as many options within a product category compared with last season.  This does not indicate 2x the sales is expected - normally you will expect some growth across the range - then add some additional growth by having more options.

See Seasonal Brand Forecasting of Quantities Flow

Top Down Seasonal Revenue Forecasting Process

• Once decided the sales forecast will be generated by customer group
  • Review and adjust at the /wiki/spaces/SE/pages/32638092 level the overall forecast
  • Note some of the growth may be allocated to "new customers"
• Once decided the sales forecast will be generated at the individual customer level by Brands and Article Categories

See Top Down Revenue Forecasting Process

The Bottom up Seasonal Revenue Forecasting Process

Sales reps will need to review the Forecast

1. Forecast will be by Brands and Article Categories
2. Rep can adjust values for each customer while viewing overall values and comparisons to previous year
3. Rep confirms values
4. Rep reviews gap and estimates new customers impact
5. Result provides a comparison forecast.

See Bottom up Sales Forecast Process

Resulting Seasonal Forecast

The Resulting Seasonal Forecast is normally somewhere between the two and so may require some iteration to become fixed.